WFGY/ProblemMap/GlobalFixMap/Eval_Observability/lambda_observe.md

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Eval Observability — λ_observe

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Evaluation disclaimer (λ_observe)
λ_observe is a heuristic stability signal defined inside the WFGY framework.
It helps you notice drift and volatility but is not a formal guarantee of long term robustness.


A core probe for evaluating semantic convergence across multiple seeds, paraphrases, and retrieval variations.
While ΔS measures semantic distance, λ_observe captures stability vs divergence of reasoning paths.


Why λ_observe matters

  • Detect fragile reasoning: Even when ΔS looks safe, λ divergence indicates unstable chains.
  • Identify paraphrase sensitivity: If λ flips across harmless rewordings, the system is brittle.
  • Audit retrieval randomness: Different seeds producing opposite λ signals reveal weak schema.
  • Ensure eval reproducibility: Stable λ means tests repeat reliably under small perturbations.

λ state encoding

Symbol Meaning Example failure
Forward convergence, stable path Same citations and reasoning across paraphrases
Backward collapse, early abort Tool call retries, empty citations
<> Split state, partial divergence One paraphrase cites correct snippet, others miss
× Total collapse Random answers, no citation alignment

Acceptance targets

  • Convergence rate ≥ 0.80 across 3 paraphrases × 2 seeds.
  • No × states tolerated in gold-set eval.
  • Split states (<>): ≤ 10% of test cases acceptable.
  • Forward (→) must dominate stable runs.

Evaluation workflow

  1. Run triple paraphrase probe
    Ask the same question three ways. Collect λ states.
  2. Repeat with two seeds
    Track variance.
  3. Roll-up stats
    Compute convergence ratio, collapse frequency, divergence rate.
  4. Escalation
    If λ <0.80 or × >0%, run root-cause: schema audit, retriever split, prompt ordering.

Example probe schema

{
  "query_id": "Q42",
  "runs": [
    {"paraphrase": 1, "seed": 123, "λ": "→"},
    {"paraphrase": 2, "seed": 123, "λ": "→"},
    {"paraphrase": 3, "seed": 123, "λ": "<>"},
    {"paraphrase": 1, "seed": 456, "λ": "→"},
    {"paraphrase": 2, "seed": 456, "λ": "×"},
    {"paraphrase": 3, "seed": 456, "λ": "→"}
  ]
}

Common pitfalls

  • Only measuring ΔS → misses hidden divergence.
  • Seed-fixed eval → looks stable but fragile in production.
  • Ignoring split states → small divergence often grows into collapse.
  • No per-query logs → averages hide catastrophic single failures.

Reporting recommendations

  • λ distribution table: % of →, ←, <>, ×.
  • Convergence trend: chart over time by eval batch.
  • Drift alerts: trigger if convergence <0.80 or × appears.
  • Correlation: track ΔS vs λ to spot mixed failures.

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