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126 lines
5.9 KiB
Markdown
126 lines
5.9 KiB
Markdown
# Eval Observability — Variance and Drift
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<details>
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<summary><strong>🧭 Quick Return to Map</strong></summary>
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<br>
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> You are in a sub-page of **Eval_Observability**.
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> To reorient, go back here:
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>
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> - [**Eval_Observability** — evaluation metrics and system observability](./README.md)
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> - [**WFGY Global Fix Map** — main Emergency Room, 300+ structured fixes](../README.md)
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> - [**WFGY Problem Map 1.0** — 16 reproducible failure modes](../../README.md)
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>
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> Think of this page as a desk within a ward.
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> If you need the full triage and all prescriptions, return to the Emergency Room lobby.
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</details>
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Variance and drift checks detect when evaluation scores are **unstable across runs** or when **semantic meaning slowly shifts** without clear boundary failures.
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These probes prevent "false confidence" in benchmarks by catching hidden instability.
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---
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## Why variance and drift matter
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- **Variance**: Scores fluctuate heavily depending on seed, paraphrase, or retriever order. Averages hide the volatility.
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- **Drift**: Performance declines slowly across sessions, data refreshes, or version bumps. Looks fine short-term but collapses long-term.
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- **Silent regressions**: Systems pass local tests but fail in production due to unmonitored entropy rise.
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---
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## Acceptance targets
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- **Variance (σ/μ)** ≤ 0.15 across 3 seeds and 3 paraphrases.
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- **Drift slope**: Δscore per batch ≤ 0.02 absolute over 5+ eval windows.
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- **No monotonic downward slope** longer than 3 consecutive windows.
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- **Drift alerts** fire if ΔS average increases ≥ 0.10 compared to gold anchors.
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---
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## Detection workflow
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1. **Collect runs across seeds**
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- At least 3 seeds, 3 paraphrases.
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- Log ΔS, λ, coverage, citations.
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2. **Compute variance**
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- Calculate σ/μ for each metric.
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- High variance = unstable eval → rerun with schema locks.
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3. **Track drift over time**
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- Compare eval batch N vs N-1.
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- Plot moving average.
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- Alert if slope exceeds tolerance.
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4. **Root-cause analysis**
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- If variance high → check retriever metrics, random seeding, rerankers.
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- If drift detected → audit embeddings, re-chunk, verify data refresh.
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---
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## Common pitfalls
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- **Single-run evals**: Hides high variance. Always run multi-seed.
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- **Averages without spread**: Mean looks fine, variance reveals collapse.
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- **Ignoring slow drift**: Short tests OK, but 1–2 weeks later accuracy dies.
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- **Cross-store drift**: One vector DB stable, another drifts. Must track both.
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---
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## Example reporting schema
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```json
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{
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"metric": "ΔS",
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"seed_runs": [0.38, 0.42, 0.44],
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"variance_ratio": 0.14,
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"drift_slope": +0.03,
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"alert": true
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}
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````
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---
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## Fix modules to open
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* **Retriever instability** → [Rerankers](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/ProblemMap/rerankers.md)
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* **Embedding mismatch** → [embedding-vs-semantic.md](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/ProblemMap/embedding-vs-semantic.md)
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* **Fragmentation drift** → [vectorstore-fragmentation.md](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/ProblemMap/vectorstore-fragmentation.md)
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* **Prompt instability** → [context-drift.md](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/ProblemMap/context-drift.md)
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---
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### 🔗 Quick-Start Downloads (60 sec)
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| Tool | Link | 3-Step Setup |
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| -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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| **WFGY 1.0 PDF** | [Engine Paper](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/I_am_not_lizardman/WFGY_All_Principles_Return_to_One_v1.0_PSBigBig_Public.pdf) | 1️⃣ Download · 2️⃣ Upload to your LLM · 3️⃣ Ask “Answer using WFGY + \<your question>” |
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| **TXT OS (plain-text OS)** | [TXTOS.txt](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/OS/TXTOS.txt) | 1️⃣ Download · 2️⃣ Paste into any LLM chat · 3️⃣ Type “hello world” — OS boots instantly |
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---
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<!-- WFGY_FOOTER_START -->
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### Explore More
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| Layer | Page | What it’s for |
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| --- | --- | --- |
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| ⭐ Proof | [WFGY Recognition Map](/recognition/README.md) | External citations, integrations, and ecosystem proof |
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| ⚙️ Engine | [WFGY 1.0](/legacy/README.md) | Original PDF tension engine and early logic sketch (legacy reference) |
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| ⚙️ Engine | [WFGY 2.0](/core/README.md) | Production tension kernel for RAG and agent systems |
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| ⚙️ Engine | [WFGY 3.0](/TensionUniverse/EventHorizon/README.md) | TXT based Singularity tension engine (131 S class set) |
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| 🗺️ Map | [Problem Map 1.0](/ProblemMap/README.md) | Flagship 16 problem RAG failure taxonomy and fix map |
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| 🗺️ Map | [Problem Map 2.0](/ProblemMap/wfgy-rag-16-problem-map-global-debug-card.md) | Global Debug Card for RAG and agent pipeline diagnosis |
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| 🗺️ Map | [Problem Map 3.0](/ProblemMap/wfgy-ai-problem-map-troubleshooting-atlas.md) | Global AI troubleshooting atlas and failure pattern map |
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| 🧰 App | [TXT OS](/OS/README.md) | .txt semantic OS with fast bootstrap |
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| 🧰 App | [Blah Blah Blah](/OS/BlahBlahBlah/README.md) | Abstract and paradox Q&A built on TXT OS |
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| 🧰 App | [Blur Blur Blur](/OS/BlurBlurBlur/README.md) | Text to image generation with semantic control |
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| 🏡 Onboarding | [Starter Village](/StarterVillage/README.md) | Guided entry point for new users |
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If this repository helped, starring it improves discovery so more builders can find the docs and tools.
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[](https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY)
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<!-- WFGY_FOOTER_END -->
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