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feat(stats): add weekly retention
This commit is contained in:
Adam
parent
830aaf2059
commit
902e67eba9
8 changed files with 112 additions and 73 deletions
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@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import { ProviderIcon } from "@opencode-ai/ui/provider-icon"
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import {
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getStatsModelsComparisonData,
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type ModelUsagePoint,
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type RetentionEntry,
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type StatsModelComparisonInput,
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type StatsModelComparisonEntry,
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} from "@opencode-ai/stats-core/domain/home"
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@ -949,6 +950,17 @@ function buildComparisonDetailSections(models: readonly ComparisonModel[]): Comp
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],
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usage: models.map((model) => model.stats?.usage ?? []),
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},
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{
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title: "Retention",
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badge: "Week 1",
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rows: [
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comparisonDetailRow(
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"Returning users",
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models.map((model) => retentionCell(model.stats?.weeklyRetention)),
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"higher",
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),
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],
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},
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]
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}
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@ -1031,6 +1043,15 @@ function percentCell(value: number | undefined): ComparisonDetailCell {
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return value === undefined ? { value: "No usage" } : { value: formatPercent(value), score: value }
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}
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function retentionCell(value: RetentionEntry | null | undefined): ComparisonDetailCell {
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if (!value || value.rank === null) return { value: "Pending" }
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return {
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value: formatPercent(value.rate),
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unit: `${formatTokens(value.eligibleUserWeeks)} user-weeks`,
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score: value.rate,
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}
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}
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function tokenCell(value: number | undefined, trend: number | undefined): ComparisonDetailCell {
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if (value === undefined) return { value: "No usage" }
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return { value: formatTokens(value), score: value, trend }
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@ -470,7 +470,7 @@ function ModelMomentumSection(props: { data: StatsModelPageData | null }) {
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value={formatInteger(data().totals.sessions)}
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/>
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<MomentumMetric label={i18n.t("model.tokenShare")} value={formatPercent(data().tokenShare)} />
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<MomentumMetric label="7D Retention" value={formatModelRetention(data())} />
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<MomentumMetric label="Weekly Retention" value={formatModelRetention(data())} />
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<MomentumMetric
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label="Rank"
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value={formatRankLabel(data().rank)}
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@ -542,8 +542,8 @@ function MomentumMetric(props: { label: string; value: string; watermark?: strin
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}
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function formatModelRetention(data: StatsModelPageData) {
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if (!data.retention7d || data.retention7d.eligibleUserDays < 100) return "Pending"
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return formatPercent(data.retention7d.rate)
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if (!data.weeklyRetention || data.weeklyRetention.eligibleUserWeeks < 100) return "Pending"
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return formatPercent(data.weeklyRetention.rate)
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}
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function ModelUsageSection(props: { data: StatsModelPageData | null }) {
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@ -626,17 +626,13 @@ function RetentionSection(props: { data: RetentionEntry[] }) {
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return (
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<section id="retention" data-section="retention">
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<SectionTitle
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id="retention"
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title="7-Day Retention"
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description="Share of users returning to any OpenCode model seven days later, grouped by their primary model. Latest seven complete cohorts; minimum 100 eligible user-days."
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/>
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<SectionTitle id="retention" title="Weekly Retention" description="Weekly users returning the next week." />
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<Show
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when={props.data.length > 0}
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fallback={
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<EmptyState
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title="No retention data"
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description="Retention appears after seven complete user cohorts are available."
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description="Retention appears after a complete return week is available."
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/>
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}
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>
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@ -660,13 +656,13 @@ function RetentionSection(props: { data: RetentionEntry[] }) {
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onPointerEnter={() => setActiveIndex(index())}
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onFocus={() => setActiveIndex(index())}
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onClick={() => setActiveIndex(index())}
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aria-label={`${item.model}, ${formatRetentionRate(item.rate)} seven-day retention, ${formatUsers(item.eligibleUserDays)} eligible user-days`}
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aria-label={`${item.model}, ${formatRetentionRate(item.rate)} weekly retention, ${formatUsers(item.eligibleUserWeeks)} eligible user-weeks`}
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>
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<span>{item.rank === null ? "–" : String(item.rank).padStart(2, "0")}</span>
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<strong>{item.model}</strong>
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<RetentionMarker rate={item.rate} active={activeIndex() === index()} />
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<b>{formatRetentionRate(item.rate)}</b>
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<em>{formatUsers(item.eligibleUserDays)}</em>
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<em>{formatUsers(item.eligibleUserWeeks)}</em>
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</a>
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</li>
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)}
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@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ process.env.SST_RESOURCE_StatsDatabase = JSON.stringify({ url: "mysql://localhos
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const { buildRetentionEntries } = await import("./home")
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describe("retention aggregates", () => {
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test("pools the latest seven cohorts and ranks models above the sample floor", () => {
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test("pools the latest seven weekly cohorts and ranks models above the sample floor", () => {
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const rows = [
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...cohorts("model-a", "provider-a", 8, 20, 10),
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...cohorts("model-b", "provider-b", 8, 20, 12),
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@ -16,20 +16,20 @@ describe("retention aggregates", () => {
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const entries = buildRetentionEntries(rows)
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expect(entries.find((item) => item.model === "model-a")).toMatchObject({
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eligibleUserDays: 140,
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retainedUserDays: 70,
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eligibleUserWeeks: 140,
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retainedUserWeeks: 70,
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rate: 50,
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rank: 2,
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})
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expect(entries.find((item) => item.model === "model-b")).toMatchObject({
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eligibleUserDays: 140,
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retainedUserDays: 84,
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eligibleUserWeeks: 140,
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retainedUserWeeks: 84,
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rate: 60,
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rank: 1,
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})
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expect(entries.find((item) => item.model === "small-model")).toMatchObject({
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eligibleUserDays: 70,
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retainedUserDays: 63,
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eligibleUserWeeks: 70,
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retainedUserWeeks: 63,
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rate: 90,
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rank: null,
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})
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@ -29,8 +29,8 @@ export type RetentionEntry = {
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provider: string
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author: string
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rate: number
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eligibleUserDays: number
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retainedUserDays: number
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eligibleUserWeeks: number
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retainedUserWeeks: number
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rank: number | null
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}
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export type CountryEntry = { country: string; continent: string; tokens: number; share: number; rank: number }
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@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ export type StatsModelData = {
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totalModels: number
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tokenShare: number
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tokenChange: number
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retention7d: RetentionEntry | null
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weeklyRetention: RetentionEntry | null
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totals: {
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sessions: number
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uniqueUsers: number
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@ -105,6 +105,7 @@ export type StatsModelComparisonEntry = {
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totalModels: number
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tokenShare: number
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tokenChange: number
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weeklyRetention: RetentionEntry | null
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totals: StatsModelData["totals"]
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usage: ModelUsagePoint[]
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}
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@ -142,8 +143,8 @@ const TOKEN_SCALE = 1_000_000
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const DOLLARS_PER_MICROCENT = 1 / 100_000_000
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const METRIC_MODEL_LIMIT = 10
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const RETENTION_MODEL_LIMIT = 15
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const RETENTION_MIN_ELIGIBLE_USER_DAYS = 100
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const RETENTION_COHORT_DAYS = 7
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const RETENTION_MIN_ELIGIBLE_USER_WEEKS = 100
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const RETENTION_COHORT_WEEKS = 7
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const TOP_MODEL_SEGMENT_LIMIT = 9
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// Preserve the response shape while the public site presents Go and Free as one cohort.
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const SITE_PRODUCT = "Go"
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@ -193,7 +194,7 @@ export function getStatsHomeData(): Effect.Effect<StatsHomeData, StatsDataError>
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const [modelRows, geoRows, retentionRows] = await Promise.all([
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listModelDaily(),
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listGeoDaily(),
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listRetentionDaily(),
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listRetentionWeekly(),
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])
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return buildStatsHomeData(modelRows, geoRows, retentionRows)
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},
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@ -207,7 +208,7 @@ export function getStatsModelData(
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): Effect.Effect<StatsModelData | null, StatsDataError> {
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return Effect.tryPromise({
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try: async () => {
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const [modelRows, retentionRows] = await Promise.all([listModelDaily(), listRetentionDaily()])
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const [modelRows, retentionRows] = await Promise.all([listModelDaily(), listRetentionWeekly()])
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const normalized = modelRows.flatMap(normalizeStatRow)
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const resolvedModel = resolveModelName(model, normalized, provider)
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if (!resolvedModel) return null
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@ -288,12 +289,12 @@ async function listGeoDaily(opts?: { provider?: string; model?: string }): Promi
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}))
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}
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async function listRetentionDaily(): Promise<RetentionMetricRow[]> {
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async function listRetentionWeekly(): Promise<RetentionMetricRow[]> {
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try {
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return (
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await queryRows(
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`select cohort_date, updated_at, provider, model, eligible_users, retained_users
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from model_retention where dataset = 'zen' and tier = 'all' order by cohort_date`,
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from model_retention where dataset = 'zen' and tier = 'Go' order by cohort_date`,
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)
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).map((row) => ({
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cohortDate: stringValue(row.cohort_date),
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@ -334,8 +335,16 @@ export const getStatsModelsComparisonData: (
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) => Effect.Effect<StatsModelComparisonData, DatabaseError, ModelStatRepo> = Effect.fn("StatsModelsComparison.getData")(
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function* (models) {
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const modelStats = yield* ModelStatRepo
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const rows = yield* modelStats.listDaily()
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const entries = models.map((model) => toComparisonEntry(buildStatsModelData(model.model, rows, [], model.provider)))
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const [rows, retentionRows] = yield* Effect.all([
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modelStats.listDaily(),
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Effect.tryPromise({
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try: listRetentionWeekly,
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catch: (cause) => DatabaseError.make({ cause }),
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}),
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])
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const entries = models.map((model) =>
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toComparisonEntry(buildStatsModelData(model.model, rows, [], model.provider, retentionRows)),
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)
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const latest = entries
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.map((model) => model?.updatedAt)
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.flatMap((value) => (value ? [dateTime(value)] : []))
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@ -458,7 +467,7 @@ function buildStatsModelData(
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const peerRank = rankIndex >= 0 ? rankIndex + 1 : 1
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const totalTokens = windowPeers.reduce((sum, item) => sum + item.totalTokens, 0)
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const peerTokens = rankPeers.reduce((sum, item) => sum + item.totalTokens, 0)
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const retention7d = buildRetentionEntries(retentionRows).find((item) => item.model === model) ?? null
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const weeklyRetention = buildRetentionEntries(retentionRows).find((item) => item.model === model) ?? null
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return {
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updatedAt: Number.isFinite(latestUpdate) ? new Date(latestUpdate).toISOString() : null,
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@ -471,7 +480,7 @@ function buildStatsModelData(
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totalModels: windowPeers.length,
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tokenShare: totalTokens > 0 ? round((current.totalTokens / totalTokens) * 100, 2) : 0,
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tokenChange: percentChange(current.totalTokens, previous.totalTokens),
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retention7d,
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weeklyRetention,
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totals: {
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sessions: current.sessions,
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uniqueUsers: current.uniqueUsers,
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@ -553,6 +562,7 @@ function toComparisonEntry(data: StatsModelData | null): StatsModelComparisonEnt
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totalModels: data.totalModels,
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tokenShare: data.tokenShare,
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tokenChange: data.tokenChange,
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weeklyRetention: data.weeklyRetention,
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totals: data.totals,
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usage: data.usage,
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}
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@ -574,7 +584,7 @@ function emptyStatsHomeData(): StatsHomeData {
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}
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export function buildRetentionEntries(rows: RetentionMetricRow[]): RetentionEntry[] {
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const cohortDates = [...new Set(rows.map((row) => row.cohortDate))].toSorted().slice(-RETENTION_COHORT_DAYS)
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const cohortDates = [...new Set(rows.map((row) => row.cohortDate))].toSorted().slice(-RETENTION_COHORT_WEEKS)
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const aggregate = rows
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.filter((row) => cohortDates.includes(row.cohortDate))
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.reduce<Map<string, Omit<RetentionEntry, "author" | "rate" | "rank">>>((result, row) => {
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@ -582,20 +592,22 @@ export function buildRetentionEntries(rows: RetentionMetricRow[]): RetentionEntr
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result.set(row.model, {
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model: row.model,
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provider: current?.provider ?? row.provider,
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eligibleUserDays: (current?.eligibleUserDays ?? 0) + row.eligibleUsers,
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retainedUserDays: (current?.retainedUserDays ?? 0) + row.retainedUsers,
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eligibleUserWeeks: (current?.eligibleUserWeeks ?? 0) + row.eligibleUsers,
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retainedUserWeeks: (current?.retainedUserWeeks ?? 0) + row.retainedUsers,
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})
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return result
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}, new Map())
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const entries = [...aggregate.values()].map((item) => ({
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...item,
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author: formatProvider(item.provider),
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rate: item.eligibleUserDays > 0 ? round((item.retainedUserDays / item.eligibleUserDays) * 100, 1) : 0,
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rate: item.eligibleUserWeeks > 0 ? round((item.retainedUserWeeks / item.eligibleUserWeeks) * 100, 1) : 0,
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}))
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const ranks = new Map(
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entries
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.filter((item) => item.eligibleUserDays >= RETENTION_MIN_ELIGIBLE_USER_DAYS)
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.toSorted((a, b) => b.rate - a.rate || b.eligibleUserDays - a.eligibleUserDays || a.model.localeCompare(b.model))
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.filter((item) => item.eligibleUserWeeks >= RETENTION_MIN_ELIGIBLE_USER_WEEKS)
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.toSorted(
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(a, b) => b.rate - a.rate || b.eligibleUserWeeks - a.eligibleUserWeeks || a.model.localeCompare(b.model),
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)
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.map((item, index) => [item.model, index + 1]),
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)
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return entries
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@ -163,24 +163,32 @@ describe("inference stat normalization", () => {
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expect(query).toContain("(source = 'inference' AND started_at >= '2026-08-11T10:57:48.186Z')")
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})
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test("builds complete seven-day cohort retention queries", () => {
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const queries = buildRetentionQueries(new Date("2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z"), new Date("2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z"), {
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test("builds complete week-over-week retention queries", () => {
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const queries = buildRetentionQueries(new Date("2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z"), new Date("2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z"), {
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namespace: "inference",
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table: "generation",
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dataset: "zen",
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})
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expect(queries).toHaveLength(1)
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expect(queries[0]?.cohortDates).toEqual(["2026-08-10", "2026-08-11", "2026-08-12"])
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expect(queries[0]?.cohortDates).toEqual(["2026-08-10", "2026-08-17"])
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("AND product = 'go'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("COUNT(*) AS model_requests")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain(
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"SUM(model_requests) OVER (PARTITION BY cohort_date, user_key) AS total_requests",
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)
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("ROW_NUMBER() OVER")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("PARTITION BY cohort_date, user_key")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("ORDER BY total_tokens DESC, requests DESC, model ASC")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("ORDER BY model_requests DESC, model ASC")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("total_requests >= 10")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("CAST(model_requests AS double) / NULLIF(total_requests, 0) >= 0.8")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("WHEN '2026-08-17' THEN '2026-08-10'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("WHEN '2026-08-19' THEN '2026-08-12'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("WHEN '2026-08-24' THEN '2026-08-17'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("started_at >= '2026-08-10T00:00:00.000Z'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("started_at < '2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("started_at < '2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z'")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("LEFT JOIN returned ON primary_models.user_key = returned.user_key")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("primary_models.cohort_date = returned.cohort_date")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("'Go' AS tier")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("COUNT(*) AS eligible_users")
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expect(queries[0]?.query).toContain("LIMIT 10000")
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})
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@ -74,23 +74,23 @@ function buildRetentionQuery(
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const scanEndValue = sqlString(last.returnEnd.toISOString())
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const ingestEndValue = sqlString(new Date(last.returnEnd.getTime() + DAY_MS).toISOString())
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const sourceTable = [source.namespace, source.table].map(sqlIdentifier).join(".")
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const activityDates = [
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const activityWeeks = [
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...new Map(
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periods.flatMap((period) => [period.start, period.returnStart]).map((date) => [date.toISOString(), date]),
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).values(),
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].toSorted((a, b) => a.getTime() - b.getTime())
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const activityDateSql = `CASE
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${activityDates
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const activityWeekSql = `CASE
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${activityWeeks
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.map(
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(date) =>
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` WHEN started_at >= ${sqlString(date.toISOString())} AND started_at < ${sqlString(new Date(date.getTime() + DAY_MS).toISOString())} THEN ${sqlString(date.toISOString().slice(0, 10))}`,
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` WHEN started_at >= ${sqlString(date.toISOString())} AND started_at < ${sqlString(new Date(date.getTime() + WEEK_MS).toISOString())} THEN ${sqlString(date.toISOString().slice(0, 10))}`,
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)
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.join("\n")}
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ELSE null
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END`
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const cohortDates = periods.map((period) => sqlString(period.start.toISOString().slice(0, 10))).join(", ")
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const returnDates = periods.map((period) => sqlString(period.returnStart.toISOString().slice(0, 10))).join(", ")
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const returnCohortSql = `CASE activity_date
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const returnCohortSql = `CASE activity_week
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${periods
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.map(
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(period) =>
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@ -102,12 +102,11 @@ ${periods
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return `
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WITH normalized AS (
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SELECT
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${activityDateSql} AS activity_date,
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||||
${activityWeekSql} AS activity_week,
|
||||
${statModelSql("model_requested", "route_model")} AS model,
|
||||
COALESCE(NULLIF(route_model, ''), '') AS provider_model,
|
||||
COALESCE(NULLIF(provider_id, ''), '') AS raw_provider,
|
||||
COALESCE(NULLIF(user_id, ''), NULLIF(workspace_id, ''), NULLIF(service_api_key_id, '')) AS user_key,
|
||||
COALESCE(tokens_cache_read, 0) + COALESCE(tokens_cache_write, 0) + COALESCE(tokens_input, 0) + COALESCE(tokens_output, 0) AS tokens_total
|
||||
COALESCE(NULLIF(user_id, ''), NULLIF(workspace_id, ''), NULLIF(service_api_key_id, '')) AS user_key
|
||||
FROM ${sourceTable}
|
||||
WHERE event_type = 'generation.completed'
|
||||
AND source IN ('inference', 'inference-legacy')
|
||||
|
|
@ -115,7 +114,7 @@ WITH normalized AS (
|
|||
(source = 'inference-legacy' AND started_at < ${sqlString(LIVE_SOURCE_START)})
|
||||
OR (source = 'inference' AND started_at >= ${sqlString(LIVE_SOURCE_START)})
|
||||
)
|
||||
AND (product = 'go' OR (${freeTierSql("model_tier", "model_requested")}))
|
||||
AND product = 'go'
|
||||
AND model_requested IS NOT NULL
|
||||
AND model_requested <> ''
|
||||
AND __ingest_ts >= ${scanStartValue}
|
||||
|
|
@ -124,53 +123,55 @@ WITH normalized AS (
|
|||
AND started_at < ${scanEndValue}
|
||||
), filtered AS (
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
activity_date,
|
||||
activity_week,
|
||||
${statProviderSql("model", "provider_model", "raw_provider")} AS provider,
|
||||
model,
|
||||
user_key,
|
||||
tokens_total
|
||||
user_key
|
||||
FROM normalized
|
||||
WHERE activity_date IS NOT NULL
|
||||
WHERE activity_week IS NOT NULL
|
||||
AND user_key <> ''
|
||||
AND lower(model) NOT IN (${[...EXCLUDED_MODELS].map(sqlString).join(", ")})
|
||||
), model_usage AS (
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
activity_date AS cohort_date,
|
||||
activity_week AS cohort_date,
|
||||
user_key,
|
||||
provider,
|
||||
model,
|
||||
SUM(tokens_total) AS total_tokens,
|
||||
COUNT(*) AS requests
|
||||
COUNT(*) AS model_requests
|
||||
FROM filtered
|
||||
WHERE activity_date IN (${cohortDates})
|
||||
GROUP BY activity_date, user_key, provider, model
|
||||
WHERE activity_week IN (${cohortDates})
|
||||
GROUP BY activity_week, user_key, provider, model
|
||||
), ranked_models AS (
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
cohort_date,
|
||||
user_key,
|
||||
provider,
|
||||
model,
|
||||
model_requests,
|
||||
SUM(model_requests) OVER (PARTITION BY cohort_date, user_key) AS total_requests,
|
||||
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
|
||||
PARTITION BY cohort_date, user_key
|
||||
ORDER BY total_tokens DESC, requests DESC, model ASC
|
||||
ORDER BY model_requests DESC, model ASC
|
||||
) AS model_rank
|
||||
FROM model_usage
|
||||
), primary_models AS (
|
||||
SELECT cohort_date, user_key, provider, model
|
||||
FROM ranked_models
|
||||
WHERE model_rank = 1
|
||||
AND total_requests >= 10
|
||||
AND CAST(model_requests AS double) / NULLIF(total_requests, 0) >= 0.8
|
||||
), returned AS (
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
${returnCohortSql} AS cohort_date,
|
||||
user_key
|
||||
FROM filtered
|
||||
WHERE activity_date IN (${returnDates})
|
||||
WHERE activity_week IN (${returnDates})
|
||||
GROUP BY ${returnCohortSql}, user_key
|
||||
)
|
||||
SELECT
|
||||
primary_models.cohort_date,
|
||||
${sqlString(source.dataset)} AS dataset,
|
||||
'all' AS tier,
|
||||
'Go' AS tier,
|
||||
primary_models.provider,
|
||||
primary_models.model,
|
||||
COUNT(*) AS eligible_users,
|
||||
|
|
@ -453,14 +454,13 @@ function statPeriods(grain: "day" | "week", periodStart: Date, periodEnd: Date)
|
|||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function retentionPeriods(periodStart: Date, periodEnd: Date) {
|
||||
const first = startOfUtcDay(periodStart)
|
||||
const last = new Date(startOfUtcDay(periodEnd).getTime() - WEEK_MS)
|
||||
const count = Math.max(0, Math.floor((last.getTime() - first.getTime()) / DAY_MS))
|
||||
const first = startOfIsoWeek(periodStart)
|
||||
const completeEnd = startOfIsoWeek(periodEnd)
|
||||
const count = Math.max(0, Math.floor((completeEnd.getTime() - first.getTime()) / WEEK_MS) - 1)
|
||||
return Array.from({ length: count }, (_, index) => {
|
||||
const start = new Date(first.getTime() + index * DAY_MS)
|
||||
const end = new Date(start.getTime() + DAY_MS)
|
||||
const returnStart = new Date(start.getTime() + WEEK_MS)
|
||||
return { start, end, returnStart, returnEnd: new Date(returnStart.getTime() + DAY_MS) }
|
||||
const start = new Date(first.getTime() + index * WEEK_MS)
|
||||
const end = new Date(start.getTime() + WEEK_MS)
|
||||
return { start, end, returnStart: end, returnEnd: new Date(end.getTime() + WEEK_MS) }
|
||||
})
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -20,7 +20,9 @@ const DATALAKE_INGESTION_LAG_MS = 5 * 60_000
|
|||
const STATS_DATA_START_MS = new Date("2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z").getTime()
|
||||
const WEEK_MS = 7 * 86_400_000
|
||||
const DISPLAY_WINDOW_MS = 56 * 86_400_000
|
||||
const RETENTION_INCREMENTAL_LOOKBACK_MS = 9 * 86_400_000
|
||||
// A retention result needs one complete activity week plus its complete return
|
||||
// week. Keep another partial week of slack around the ISO-week boundary.
|
||||
const RETENTION_INCREMENTAL_LOOKBACK_MS = 16 * 86_400_000
|
||||
// Anchor incremental passes to the ISO week containing this lookback, so the pass
|
||||
// after a week boundary still recomputes the previous week's final aggregates even
|
||||
// if the boundary pass itself failed.
|
||||
|
|
@ -80,7 +82,7 @@ export const syncStats: (options?: {
|
|||
retentionStats.replace(retentionRows, {
|
||||
cohortDates: retentionQueries.flatMap((item) => item.cohortDates),
|
||||
dataset: Resource.StatsSyncConfig.dataset,
|
||||
tier: "all",
|
||||
tier: "Go",
|
||||
}),
|
||||
],
|
||||
{
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue