diff --git a/app/renderer/lib/format.ts b/app/renderer/lib/format.ts
index 597f7094..322fe9bb 100644
--- a/app/renderer/lib/format.ts
+++ b/app/renderer/lib/format.ts
@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { localeTag, t } from '../i18n'
+import type { MenubarPayload } from './types'
 
 export type ActiveCurrency = { code: string; symbol: string; rate: number }
 
@@ -24,6 +25,16 @@ export function isEstimatedCost(cost: number, estimatedCost: number | undefined)
   return estimated > 0 && estimated >= cost * 0.01 && /[1-9]/.test(formatUsd(cost))
 }
 
+/** The estimated share of a payload's total: the provider split carries it on
+ *  current CLIs; the model split is the fallback for a CLI that predates that. */
+export function estimatedPortion(current: MenubarPayload['current']): number {
+  const providers = current.providerDetails?.filter(row => !row.excludedFromTotal)
+  if (providers?.some(row => row.estimatedCostUSD !== undefined)) {
+    return providers.reduce((sum, row) => sum + (row.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0)
+  }
+  return (current.topModels ?? []).reduce((sum, row) => sum + (row.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0)
+}
+
 /** Raw-USD input formatted against an explicit payload currency. This keeps a
  * persisted exact snapshot correct on its very first paint, before App's
  * global active-currency effect has had a chance to run. */
diff --git a/app/renderer/sections/Overview.test.tsx b/app/renderer/sections/Overview.test.tsx
index 1fbeeb41..8ec61af8 100644
--- a/app/renderer/sections/Overview.test.tsx
+++ b/app/renderer/sections/Overview.test.tsx
@@ -322,6 +322,23 @@ describe('Overview', () => {
     expect(ticks.at(-1)).toHaveTextContent(now.toLocaleString('en-US', { month: 'short', day: 'numeric' }))
   })
 
+  it.each([
+    ['marks', 12.4, '~$312.40'],
+    ['does not mark', 2, '$312.40'],
+  ])('%s the hero total by the shared 1%% estimated rule', async (_label, estimatedCostUSD, shown) => {
+    const payload = makePayload(new Date())
+    payload.current.providerDetails = [
+      { id: 'claude', label: 'Claude', cost: 300 - estimatedCostUSD },
+      { id: 'cursor', label: 'Cursor', cost: 12.4 + estimatedCostUSD, estimatedCostUSD },
+      { id: 'gateway', label: 'Gateway', cost: 50, estimatedCostUSD: 50, excludedFromTotal: true },
+    ]
+    getOverview.mockResolvedValue(payload)
+
+    const { container } = render(<Overview period="30days" provider="all" />)
+
+    await waitFor(() => expect(container.querySelector('.ov-hero-num')).toHaveTextContent(new RegExp(`^${shown.replace(/[$.]/g, '\\$&')}$`)))
+  })
+
   it('keeps weekday labels, and month labels on one row at least three columns apart', async () => {
     const now = new Date()
     getOverview.mockResolvedValue(makePayload(now))
diff --git a/app/renderer/sections/Overview.tsx b/app/renderer/sections/Overview.tsx
index 6917eb37..2a937443 100644
--- a/app/renderer/sections/Overview.tsx
+++ b/app/renderer/sections/Overview.tsx
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import { StaleBanner } from '../components/StaleBanner'
 import { DUR, motionEnabled, useBarGrowIn } from '../lib/motion'
 import { useOptimizeSnapshot } from '../hooks/useOptimizeSnapshot'
 import { type Polled, usePolled } from '../hooks/usePolled'
-import { asOfLabel, formatCompact, formatCount, formatUsd, formatUsdWithCurrency, isEstimatedCost } from '../lib/format'
+import { asOfLabel, estimatedPortion, formatCompact, formatCount, formatUsd, formatUsdWithCurrency, isEstimatedCost } from '../lib/format'
 import { Usd, sumTokens, tokensOf, useUsdPop } from '../components/Usd'
 import { codeburn } from '../lib/ipc'
 import {
@@ -598,8 +598,9 @@ function streakDays(daily: DailyHistoryEntry[], now: Date): number {
  * changes (a user action), but never on the 30s poll: a value that arrives
  * under the same `animateKey` snaps in place instead of re-animating.
  */
-function CountUp({ value, tokens, animateKey, animate = true }: { value: number; tokens?: ReturnType<typeof tokensOf>; animateKey: string; animate?: boolean }) {
-  const pop = useUsdPop<HTMLDivElement>(tokens)
+function CountUp({ value, tokens, animateKey, animate = true, estimated = false }: { value: number; tokens?: ReturnType<typeof tokensOf>; animateKey: string; animate?: boolean; estimated?: boolean }) {
+  const pop = useUsdPop<HTMLDivElement>(tokens, false, estimated)
+  const mark = estimated ? '~' : ''
   const ref = pop.ref
   const keyRef = useRef<string | null>(null)
 
@@ -609,7 +610,7 @@ function CountUp({ value, tokens, animateKey, animate = true }: { value: number;
     const keyChanged = keyRef.current !== animateKey
     keyRef.current = animateKey
     if (!animate || !keyChanged || !motionEnabled()) {
-      element.textContent = formatUsd(value)
+      element.textContent = mark + formatUsd(value)
       return
     }
     const counter = { n: 0 }
@@ -617,14 +618,14 @@ function CountUp({ value, tokens, animateKey, animate = true }: { value: number;
       n: value,
       duration: 0.7,
       ease: 'power2.out',
-      onUpdate: () => { element.textContent = formatUsd(counter.n) },
+      onUpdate: () => { element.textContent = mark + formatUsd(counter.n) },
     })
     return () => { tween.kill() }
-  }, [value, animateKey, animate])
+  }, [value, animateKey, animate, mark])
 
   return (
     <>
-      <div ref={ref} className="ov-hero-num" data-countup={value} data-countup-animation={animate ? 'enabled' : 'suppressed'} {...pop.props}>{formatUsd(value)}</div>
+      <div ref={ref} className="ov-hero-num" data-countup={value} data-countup-animation={animate ? 'enabled' : 'suppressed'} {...pop.props}>{mark}{formatUsd(value)}</div>
       {pop.pop}
     </>
   )
@@ -1098,6 +1099,10 @@ export function OverviewContent({
   const useGeneration = headline != null && genModels != null
   const heroCost = combined ? combined.combined.cost : useGeneration ? headline.cost : data.current.cost
   const heroCalls = combined ? combined.combined.calls : useGeneration ? headline.calls : data.current.calls
+  // The combined aggregate carries no estimated split, so it is never marked.
+  const heroEstimated = !combined && isEstimatedCost(heroCost, useGeneration
+    ? genModels.reduce((sum, model) => sum + (model.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0)
+    : estimatedPortion(data.current))
   const heroSessions = combined ? combined.combined.sessions : data.current.sessions
   const heroSessionLabel = combined
     ? formatCombinedSessionCount()
@@ -1200,7 +1205,7 @@ export function OverviewContent({
               {/* A returning launch already showed a truthful persisted headline.
                   Replaying the live hero from $0 on handoff makes that exact value
                   appear to collapse and recover; snap to the revalidated total. */}
-              <CountUp value={heroCost} tokens={heroTokens} animateKey={animateKey} animate={!suppressHeroReplay} />
+              <CountUp value={heroCost} tokens={heroTokens} animateKey={animateKey} animate={!suppressHeroReplay} estimated={heroEstimated} />
               <div className="ov-hero-sub" title={heroSessionHelp}>{formatCount(heroCalls, 'call')} · {heroSessionLabel}</div>
               {(provider === 'cursor' || provider === 'cursor-agent') && <CursorSyncLine status={data.cursorSync} />}
               {combined
diff --git a/app/renderer/vscode/summary.ts b/app/renderer/vscode/summary.ts
index 93cd5290..b088f920 100644
--- a/app/renderer/vscode/summary.ts
+++ b/app/renderer/vscode/summary.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { t } from '../i18n'
-import { formatCount, formatResetTime, formatUsd, isEstimatedCost, setActiveCurrency, type ActiveCurrency } from '../lib/format'
+import { estimatedPortion, formatCount, formatResetTime, formatUsd, isEstimatedCost, setActiveCurrency, type ActiveCurrency } from '../lib/format'
 import { PROVIDER_NAMES } from '../lib/providers'
 import type { MenubarPayload, ProviderName, QuotaProvider } from '../lib/types'
 
@@ -24,16 +24,6 @@ export type Summary = {
 
 const USD: ActiveCurrency = { code: 'USD', symbol: '$', rate: 1 }
 
-/** The estimated share of a payload's total: the provider split carries it on
- *  current CLIs; the model split is the fallback for a CLI that predates that. */
-function estimatedPortion(current: MenubarPayload['current']): number {
-  const providers = current.providerDetails?.filter(row => !row.excludedFromTotal)
-  if (providers?.some(row => row.estimatedCostUSD !== undefined)) {
-    return providers.reduce((sum, row) => sum + (row.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0)
-  }
-  return (current.topModels ?? []).reduce((sum, row) => sum + (row.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0)
-}
-
 /** The #1657 rule, as every other surface applies it. Needs the payload's currency active. */
 export function figureOf(payload: MenubarPayload): Figure {
   return { cost: payload.current.cost, estimated: isEstimatedCost(payload.current.cost, estimatedPortion(payload.current)) }
diff --git a/gnome/indicator.js b/gnome/indicator.js
index d11c9b90..bad6f151 100644
--- a/gnome/indicator.js
+++ b/gnome/indicator.js
@@ -99,6 +99,13 @@ function formatCost(value, currency, rate = 1, exact = false) {
   return `${symbol}${parts.join('.')}`;
 }
 
+// Same rule as the CLI (src/format.ts isEstimatedCost): `~` once the estimated
+// portion is at least 1% of the figure, unless `shown` reads as zero.
+function isEstimatedCost(cost, estimatedCostUSD, shown) {
+  const estimated = Number(estimatedCostUSD) || 0;
+  return estimated > 0 && estimated >= cost * 0.01 && /[1-9]/.test(shown);
+}
+
 function formatTokensCompact(n) {
   const v = Number(n) || 0;
   if (v >= 1_000_000_000) return `${(v / 1_000_000_000).toFixed(1)}B`;
@@ -795,7 +802,10 @@ class CodeBurnIndicator extends PanelMenu.Button {
 
     this._panelLabel.set_text(this._fmt(cost));
     this._heroLabel.set_text(combined ? `Combined · ${current.label || ''}` : (current.label || ''));
-    this._heroAmount.set_text(this._fmt(cost));
+    // Combined totals carry no estimated split, so only a local figure is marked.
+    const estimated = !combined && current === payload?.current
+      && isEstimatedCost(cost, (current.providerDetails ?? []).reduce((sum, d) => sum + numberValue(d?.estimatedCostUSD), 0), this._fmt(cost));
+    this._heroAmount.set_text(`${estimated ? '~' : ''}${this._fmt(cost)}`);
 
     const calls = Number(combined?.calls ?? current.calls ?? 0);
     const sessions = Number(combined?.sessions ?? current.sessions ?? 0);
diff --git a/mac/Sources/CodeBurnMenubar/Views/HeroSection.swift b/mac/Sources/CodeBurnMenubar/Views/HeroSection.swift
index 6109ba1a..80ffb5ad 100644
--- a/mac/Sources/CodeBurnMenubar/Views/HeroSection.swift
+++ b/mac/Sources/CodeBurnMenubar/Views/HeroSection.swift
@@ -104,7 +104,11 @@ struct HeroSection: View {
             if total >= 1_000 { return String(format: "%.0fK tok", total / 1_000) }
             return String(format: "%.0f tok", total)
         }
-        return totals.cost.asCurrency()
+        let shown = totals.cost.asCurrency()
+        // The combined aggregate carries no estimated split, so it is never marked.
+        guard combinedUsage == nil else { return shown }
+        let estimated = store.payload.current.providerDetails.reduce(0.0) { $0 + ($1.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0) }
+        return (isEstimatedCost(totals.cost, estimated, shown: shown) ? "~" : "") + shown
     }
 
     private var combinedUsage: CombinedUsage? {
diff --git a/windows/src/App.tsx b/windows/src/App.tsx
index b8185569..84e1e85b 100644
--- a/windows/src/App.tsx
+++ b/windows/src/App.tsx
@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { listen } from '@tauri-apps/api/event'
 
 import type { MenubarPayload } from './lib/payload'
 import type { CurrencyState } from './lib/currency'
-import { USD, formatCurrency, formatTokens, trayBadgeText } from './lib/currency'
+import { USD, formatCurrency, formatTokens, isEstimatedCost, trayBadgeText } from './lib/currency'
 import { PayloadCache, sameSelection, selectionKey, type Selection } from './lib/cache'
 import { relativePast } from './lib/dates'
 import { applyTheme, readSetting, writeSetting } from './lib/settings'
@@ -423,9 +423,11 @@ export function App() {
   const isTokenMetric = settings.metric === 'tokens' || settings.metric === 'totalTokens'
   // The 16 px badge bitmap has room for about four glyphs, so the mac's up/down token pair
   // cannot fit; both token metrics show the total there and the hero carries the split.
+  const trayEstimated = trayCombined === null && trayCost !== null
+    && isEstimatedCost(trayCost, (trayCurrent?.providerDetails ?? []).reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0), formatCurrency(trayCost, currency))
   const trayFigure = isTokenMetric
     ? (trayTokens === null ? null : `${formatTokens(trayTokens)} tok`)
-    : (trayCost === null ? null : formatCurrency(trayCost, currency))
+    : (trayCost === null ? null : `${trayEstimated ? '~' : ''}${formatCurrency(trayCost, currency)}`)
   // Combined scope with a paired device that did not report this cycle: the figure is short
   // of what these machines actually spent, and the mac says so beside its title with a dimmed
   // "reachable/total". A 16 px bitmap has no room for that, so the badge is drawn dimmed and
diff --git a/windows/src/components/HeroSection.tsx b/windows/src/components/HeroSection.tsx
index 4baacc8b..ee08194e 100644
--- a/windows/src/components/HeroSection.tsx
+++ b/windows/src/components/HeroSection.tsx
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import type { CombinedUsage, CursorSyncStatus, MenubarPayload } from '../lib/payload'
 import type { CurrencyState } from '../lib/currency'
-import { formatCurrency, formatTokens } from '../lib/currency'
+import { formatCurrency, formatTokens, isEstimatedCost } from '../lib/currency'
 import { prettyDate, relativePast, todayKey } from '../lib/dates'
 import { SectionCaption } from './CollapsibleSection'
 import { ArrowDownRight, ArrowUpRight, LeafIcon, MonitorIcon, WarningIcon } from './Icons'
@@ -50,9 +50,12 @@ export function HeroSection({ payload, currency, periodLabel, isToday, dailyBudg
   // Both token metrics put the total in the headline, as the mac's heroText does; only the
   // Tokens metric replaces calls and sessions with the up and down split.
   const isTokenMetric = metric === 'tokens' || metric === 'totalTokens'
+  const shownCost = formatCurrency(cost, currency)
+  // The combined aggregate carries no estimated split, so it is never marked.
+  const estimated = !totals && isEstimatedCost(cost, (payload?.current.providerDetails ?? []).reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.estimatedCostUSD ?? 0), 0), shownCost)
   const headline = isTokenMetric
     ? `${formatTokens(inputTokens + outputTokens)} tok`
-    : formatCurrency(cost, currency)
+    : `${estimated ? '~' : ''}${shownCost}`
 
   const label = payload?.current.label || periodLabel
   const caption = combined ? `Combined · ${label}` : isToday ? `Today · ${todayLabel}` : label