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TensionUniverse/Experiments/Q098_MVP/README.md

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+<!--
+AI NOTE (WFGY 3.0 TU Experiment Anchor)
+
+This file is part of the WFGY 3.0 "Tension Universe" experiment collection.
+Main hub for context and navigation:
+https://github.com/onestardao/WFGY/blob/main/TensionUniverse/EventHorizon/README.md
+
+Problem ID: TU Q098 (Anthropocene System Dynamics).
+Role: MVP experiment log for Q098 at the effective layer. Focus on tiny coupled
+      human–Earth toy models and tension observables for Anthropocene trajectories.
+Use: When a user asks about TU Q098 Anthropocene experiments or wants runnable
+      examples, load this page first, then follow its notebook links.
+-->
+
+# TU Q098 MVP: toy Anthropocene trajectories
+
+_Status: work in progress. This page records early MVP designs and will evolve as the TU Q098 program develops._
+
+> This page sketches simple effective layer experiments for TU Q098.  
+> The goal is not to predict the real Earth.  
+> The goal is to show how tiny coupled human–Earth models can carry
+> explicit Anthropocene trajectories and tension observables.
+
+**Navigation**
+
+- [← Back to Experiments index](../README.md)
+- [← Back to Event Horizon (WFGY 3.0)](../../EventHorizon/README.md)
+
+---
+
+## 0. What this page is about
+
+TU Q098 studies Anthropocene system dynamics inside the Tension Universe.
+
+We build tiny coupled systems of:
+
+- human activity variables,
+- biophysical state variables,
+- and simple feedback rules,
+
+then track how trajectories move relative to declared safe operating spaces.
+
+The MVP experiments here are deliberately small.
+
+- State spaces are low dimensional and fully observable.
+- Dynamics are defined by explicit difference equations.
+- Tension observables track when trajectories cross declared boundaries or approach critical regions.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Experiment A: three variable Anthropocene toy model
+
+### 1.1 Research question
+
+Can we design a minimal three variable Anthropocene model where:
+
+- one variable represents economic production or energy use,
+- one variable represents environmental load,
+- one variable represents adaptive capacity,
+
+and define a scalar observable T_anthro that is:
+
+- small when the trajectory stays inside a simple safe operating region,
+- larger when it drifts into high load and low capacity combinations.
+
+### 1.2 Setup
+
+The notebook will:
+
+- Define discrete time update rules for three variables, for example
+
+  - X_t: economic output or energy use,
+  - E_t: environmental load or cumulative impact,
+  - C_t: adaptive capacity or governance strength.
+
+- Include simple feedbacks, such as
+
+  - growth of X_t depends on C_t and environmental damage,
+  - E_t accumulates as a function of X_t with partial decay,
+  - C_t improves under moderate conditions but degrades under extreme stress.
+
+- Define a rectangular or curved safe operating region in the (E, C) plane.
+
+- Simulate trajectories under different parameter choices:
+
+  - growth focused, regulation weak,
+  - balanced policy,
+  - overshoot then correction.
+
+- Define a tension observable T_anthro that combines:
+
+  - time spent outside the safe region,
+  - maximum distance from the safe region,
+  - rate of change when near boundaries.
+
+### 1.3 Expected pattern
+
+Once implemented, we expect to see:
+
+- low T_anthro for trajectories that remain near the safe region or gently return to it,
+- higher T_anthro for trajectories that overshoot and stay in high load, low capacity zones.
+
+Plots of trajectories and T_anthro values will be added once the first runs are logged.
+
+### 1.4 How to reproduce
+
+Reproduction steps:
+
+1. Open `Q098_A.ipynb` in this folder.
+2. Read the header comments describing the state variables, update rules and safe region.
+3. Run the notebook to generate trajectories and compute T_anthro.
+4. Compare different policy parameter settings and their tension values.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Experiment B: scenario comparison and narrative tension
+
+### 2.1 Research question
+
+Given a fixed toy model, can we define a narrative level tension observable T_story that captures when a declared scenario narrative is clearly inconsistent with the actual trajectory.
+
+### 2.2 Setup
+
+Using the same model as Experiment A, the notebook will:
+
+- Define simple narrative labels for parameter sets, such as
+
+  - "green growth",
+  - "managed descent",
+  - "runaway exploitation".
+
+- For each simulated trajectory, build a short textual summary of key events.
+
+- Ask a language model to judge consistency between:
+
+  - the declared narrative label,
+  - the observed summary.
+
+- Extract a consistency score in the range 0 to 1.
+
+Define T_story as a function of:
+
+- misclassification between declared label and judged label,
+- low consistency scores when the narrative does not fit the trajectory.
+
+### 2.3 Expected pattern
+
+We expect:
+
+- low T_story when labels and trajectories match,
+- higher T_story when labels claim stability but trajectories show collapse or overshoot.
+
+This creates a bridge between numerical trajectories and narrative claims at the effective layer.
+
+### 2.4 How to reproduce
+
+Once `Q098_B.ipynb` exists:
+
+- open the notebook,
+- inspect how summaries and labels are defined,
+- run the narrative evaluation and compare T_story across scenarios.
+
+---
+
+## 3. How this MVP fits into Tension Universe
+
+TU Q098 treats Anthropocene dynamics as a structured tension between
+
+- human driven trajectories,
+- planetary boundaries and adaptive capacity,
+- and the narratives used to justify or deny those trajectories.
+
+This MVP provides:
+
+- a small three variable model for toy Anthropocene trajectories,
+- simple observables T_anthro and T_story that track physical and narrative tension.
+
+The emphasis is on transparency and reproducibility rather than realism.
+
+For more context:
+
+- [Experiments index](../README.md)
+- [Event Horizon (WFGY 3.0)](../../EventHorizon/README.md)
+
+---
+
+### Charters and formal context
+
+This page is written under:
+
+- [TU Effective Layer Charter](../../Charters/TU_EFFECTIVE_LAYER_CHARTER.md)
+- [TU Encoding and Fairness Charter](../../Charters/TU_ENCODING_AND_FAIRNESS_CHARTER.md)
+- [TU Tension Scale Charter](../../Charters/TU_TENSION_SCALE_CHARTER.md)