diff --git a/TensionUniverse/Experiments/Q124_MVP/README.md b/TensionUniverse/Experiments/Q124_MVP/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7b0e1678 --- /dev/null +++ b/TensionUniverse/Experiments/Q124_MVP/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,164 @@ + + +# TU Q124 MVP: scalable oversight tension + +_Status: work in progress. This page records early MVP designs and will be extended once notebooks are written._ + +> This page sketches toy experiments for TU Q124. +> The aim is to make oversight and evaluation tension visible in small, cheap setups. + +**Navigation** + +- [← Back to Experiments index](../README.md) +- [← Back to Event Horizon (WFGY 3.0)](../../EventHorizon/README.md) + +--- + +## 0. What this page is about + +TU Q124 looks at scalable oversight and evaluation. + +We focus on simple tasks where: + +- a model produces answers, +- multiple evaluation schemes score them, +- and tension arises when cheap metrics disagree with rich oversight. + +The MVP experiments use: + +- synthetic tasks with clear ground truth, +- baseline metrics such as accuracy, +- richer metrics that consider hidden constraints. + +--- + +## 1. Experiment A: cheap metric versus rich metric + +### 1.1 Research question + +In a simple text task, can we define a scalar observable T_oversight that + +- is small when cheap metrics and rich oversight agree, +- grows when cheap metrics reward answers that violate hidden constraints. + +### 1.2 Setup + +The notebook will: + +- Define a small dataset of questions where: + + - there is a correct literal answer, + - there is also a hidden constraint or safety rule. + +- Have a model (or simple scripted agent) produce answers. +- Compute: + + - a cheap metric such as exact match accuracy, + - a rich oversight metric using a second pass judge that checks constraints. + +Define T_oversight from: + +- cases where cheap metric is high but rich metric is low, +- misranking between answers under the two metrics. + +### 1.3 Expected pattern + +We expect: + +- low T_oversight when cheap metrics are aligned with rich oversight, +- higher T_oversight when cheap metrics hide violations or pathologies. + +### 1.4 How to reproduce + +After `Q124_A.ipynb` exists: + +1. Open the notebook. +2. Inspect the task, constraints and evaluation functions. +3. Run the scoring and compute T_oversight across answers or models. +4. Compare patterns. + +--- + +## 2. Experiment B: oversight budget scaling + +### 2.1 Research question + +Can we see a controlled tradeoff between oversight budget and tension, by defining T_budget that decreases as we allocate more rich oversight under a fixed budget. + +### 2.2 Setup + +The notebook will: + +- Assume a fixed number of model outputs to evaluate. +- Define a budget in terms of: + + - number of rich oversight calls allowed, + - cost per call. + +- Implement simple policies such as: + + - random sampling for rich oversight, + - risk based sampling guided by cheap metrics. + +For each policy compute: + +- overall error rate under rich oversight, +- T_oversight as in Experiment A, +- an aggregate T_budget that captures residual tension given the budget. + +### 2.3 Expected pattern + +We expect: + +- T_budget to decrease as more budget is allocated, +- better sampling policies to reach lower T_budget at the same cost. + +### 2.4 How to reproduce + +Once `Q124_B.ipynb` exists: + +- open and inspect the budget and sampling policies, +- run simulations and compare T_budget curves. + +--- + +## 3. How this MVP fits into Tension Universe + +TU Q124 treats scalable oversight as a tension between: + +- cheap metrics and rich oversight, +- limited budgets and target reliability. + +This MVP offers: + +- a simple metric comparison experiment with T_oversight, +- a budget scaling experiment with T_budget. + +These are designed as small, re runnable notebooks. + +For context: + +- [Experiments index](../README.md) +- [Event Horizon (WFGY 3.0)](../../EventHorizon/README.md) + +--- + +### Charters and formal context + +This page follows: + +- [TU Effective Layer Charter](../../Charters/TU_EFFECTIVE_LAYER_CHARTER.md) +- [TU Encoding and Fairness Charter](../../Charters/TU_ENCODING_AND_FAIRNESS_CHARTER.md) +- [TU Tension Scale Charter](../../Charters/TU_TENSION_SCALE_CHARTER.md)