The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The . "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke with a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very highly regarded player."
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Although respected money has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We chatted with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
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So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
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"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The total has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Basically, the wagering action.
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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